Congressional Elections Notes

Incumbency

While the president is limited to serving two terms in office, members of Congress can serve an unlimited number of terms. In the mid-nineteenth century, most congressional representatives served only a single term because at that time politics was not considered a career. However, by the mid-twentieth century, congressional representatives began to view holding congressional office as a prestigious career.
Today, the incumbent—or the candidate who currently holds office—enjoys an advantage in most congressional elections. In a race for a seat in the House of Representatives, incumbents win 80 to 90 percent of the time. If House candidates develop a following during their first term, they can expect to get 8 to 10 percent more votes when running for re-election even if they do not receive party support. This increase in voter support is called the sophomore surge, a phenomenon that began in the 1960’s. Incumbent candidates in the Senate are re-elected at a lower rate than those in the House, but still have a huge advantage over new candidates. Senators have a lower re-election rate because they report to diverse constituents across an entire state, while House representatives report to a more uniform, and usually much smaller, district. The difference in constituent diversity and size opens up a larger base for opposition to a Senate incumbent. In addition, senators who run every six years have less contact with the voter making the Senate incumbent seat harder to maintain.
There are several reasons incumbents hold an advantage over new candidates. First, since many Americans know that incumbency often leads to re-election, it tends to stifle election competition. A second reason incumbents hold an advantage is that they have an almost two-to-one advantage in raising money over new candidates. Incumbents typically have an easier time gaining the financial support of Political Action Committees (PACs) and interest groups since these organizations can review voting records to verify support for their cause. For example, in the 1997-1998 congressional races, PACs donated $158.3 million to incumbents, while they only donated $21.4 million to challengers. While the bigger spender does not always win, more funding, especially in the primaries, is a great advantage.
Another advantage incumbents have is that they often get free publicity. A few of the ways incumbents gain press coverage include holding press conferences, making speeches in Congress, introducing bills, and taking trips—junkets—to their districts. Incumbents can also use their franking privileges to inundate voters with mailings prior to the elections. These mail pieces can come in the form of a “newsletter” or “information letter,” and while they may not necessarily ask for voter support, they can point out the positive actions the member of Congress is taking for the constituent.
Credit claiming is also helpful at campaign time. Incumbents can stress their policy making record and emphasize their stands on new policy issues. They can also demonstrate how they have helped their constituents by introducing bills, voting for legislation, and bringing pork-barrel legislation—federal projects, grants, and contracts—to their districts.
A final way in which incumbents hold an advantage over new candidates is that they may use casework, or the direct consideration of a constituent’s problem, when trying to gain re-election. For example, an incumbent might use his or her political connections to help an individual cut through the bureaucratic red tape on a personal issue, which would then result in good word-of-mouth publicity for the incumbent.
Although incumbents usually enjoy an advantage, special circumstances can negatively influence an incumbent’s re-election. For example, scandal, major economic shift, or a lasting change in the arrangement of political forces could influence a candidate’s re-election.
Incumbent or not, all congressional candidates must appeal to the more motivated voters, since only about 37 percent of the population vote in mid-term or off-year congressional elections—the elections that occur between presidential election years. Those who do vote are usually party regulars, political activists, or those who might be strongly affected by the outcome. As a result, candidates must appeal to partisan voters, those loyal to a specific party.